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The Risks In Equity Investing

A quick snapshot of June 2025 covering market movements, GST surge, India becoming the world’s 4th-largest economy, major regulatory updates, export milestones, inflation trends, and key NFO launches—along with featured insights on pension planning and equity-market risks...

Top 10 Updates

  • 1. The RBI has declared a record surplus transfer of Rs 2.68 lakh crore to the Centre for FY25 exceeding budget estimates. The economic capital framework has been tweaked, widening the Contingent Risk Buffer range to 4.5-7.5% of the balance sheet. This revision allows for better risk management
  • 2. India has become 4th largest economy, ahead of Japan India's economy is now the fourth largest globally, surpassing Japan. NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam shares this news. Only the US, China, and Germany are ahead. India aims to be the third largest in 2.5-3 years. The IMF projects India's 2025 GDP to exceed Japan's. India's per capita income has doubled since 2014
  • 3. GST Collections Jump 16.4% to Rs. 2 Lakh Crore in May 2025
  • GST collections surge 16.4% to over Rs. 2 lakh crore in May 2025, marking fastest growth since October 2022
  • GST from imports rises 25.2% to Rs. 51,266 crore
  • 4. No exit load on switch from regular to direct plan:SEBI
  • SEBI advised AMCs who are still following the practice of charging exit loads on switch from regular to direct plans should issue an addendum and align with SEBI’s advice, said AMFI
  • 5. ITR Filing due date extended
  • CBDT extends date of filing of Income Tax Returns (ITRs) due for filing by 31st July 2025 to 15th September 2025
  • 6. The UK and India have signed a free trade deal which will 'further strengthen the UK-India strategic partnership
  • The agreement will cut levies on 90% of British products sold in the country, including whisky, food and electrical devices
  • The new agreement is expected to increase bilateral trade between the countries by $34 billion a year from 2040
  • 7. India's smart phones become country's top exported good
  • Surpassing traditional players like petroleum products and diamonds, India's smartphone exports surged nearly fivefold to the US and about fourfold to Japan in the past three years according to government data.
  • 8. Bankruptcy resolutions peak in FY25, creditors recover over ₹67,000 crore
  • This represents a significant increase compared to the previous year, where 275 companies were turned around, and a total of Rs 50,000 crore was recovered.
  • 9. India's forex reserves rise to $690.62 billion, up $4.5 billion as of May 9th
  • 10. India's retail inflation eases to a 6-year low of 3.16% in April

CHANGE IN INDICES (Absolute Returns)

IndicesValues1M6M1Y3Y5Y10Y
SENSEX814511.50%2.06%10.12%46.58%144.42%192.69%
NASDAQ1911310.55%0.54%14.20%57.55%100.09%249.90%
GOLD953551.05%24.24%31.78%81.04%100.74%258.20%
SILVER974583.55%9.03%5.41%77.22%127.65%148.81%
INR-USD85.560.32%1.18%2.97%10.27%13.15%34.34%

HIGHEST FD RATES

CompanyTenor (Months)Rates
Bajaj Finance457.80%
ICICI Home Finance448.35%
LIC Housing Finance607.77%

Product of the Month:HDFC Life Sanchay Aajeevan Guaranteed Advantage(SAGA) – A Truly Pathbreaking Plan!

India’s 1st Pension accumulation with Guaranteed Annuity Rates.

Features

  • What makes SAGA so special?
  • - Joint Life Pension – Covers you and your spouse together!
  • Inbuilt Waiver of Premium – If the primary life insured passes away, no more premiums needed!
  • No medicals required – Completely hassle-free!
  • One Policy and 3 Powerful Benefits:
  • 1. Guaranteed Lumpsum Payout – One-time tax-free amount for your needs!
  • 2. Guaranteed Life-long Income – Monthly pension for life!
  • 3. Guaranteed Legacy Transfer – Pass on a tax-free death benefit to your nominee!
  • Example: Pay Rs 25 lakhs single premium at the age of 50, Get Guaranteed and Tax free Rs 23.9 lakhs at the age of 65, Get Guaranteed Rs 2.41 lakhs annually for whole life, Nominee gets Rs 35.85 lakhs Guaranteed and Tax-free, upon death of policy holder (assuming death occurs at age 80)

What do we do at MoneyVisors?

  • Mutual Funds
  • Term Insurance
  • Health Insurance
  • Guaranteed Income
  • Pension Plans
  • Government Bonds
  • Home Loans
  • Income Tax Returns
  • Corporate FDs
  • Will Writing
  • Entire range of corporate insurance including Employee Insurances, Transit Insurances, Professional Liabilities, D&O, Fire Insurance, Project Insurances etc.

The Risks In Equity Investing

  • Risk in short term say upto a year of investment horizon – losing a large part of your capital Risk in medium term, say investment horizon of 5 years: not matching up to fixed rate return (don’t forget to adjust for taxes) you would have realized had you invested in such instruments (say bank deposits) instead of equities. Risk in long term, say a decade or more: Here’s where things get complicated. I can think of single most important risk to long term equity investing - the geography you are investing in doesn’t see decent economic growth on per capita basis or in worst case - becomes a failed state (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failed_state). Equity markets mostly follow economic growth in the long term and they may not deliver in such situations. The first two “risks” are difficult to predict but easy to manage. The last one, which in my opinion is the “real risk” in equity investing may actually be easy to predict as there will be good many warning signs before such situation manifests. However, management of such a situation may be difficult if not impossible!!! Don’t forget- when I say equity investing, I am only considering indexing!!!
  • The first two “risks” are difficult to predict but easy to manage. The last one, which in my opinion is the “real risk” in equity investing may actually be easy to predict as there will be good many warning signs before such situation manifests.
  • However, management of such a situation may be difficult if not impossible!!! Don’t forget- when I say equity investing, I am only considering indexing!!!

Message from the Founder

Author: CA Madhusudan Chandak

Editor: Khushboo Chandak

Disclaimer: Raja Parikshit, KalYug and the Fear of Death

The Art of Spending

My father recently narrated me a very interesting story. Raja Parikshit, a just and righteous king, was said to have lived during the transition from Dwapara Yuga to Kali Yuga (Kal-Yug as we call it). As Kal-Yug began, Raja Parikshit encountered Kali, the demon representing the dark age. Raja Parikshit tried to prevent Kali from entering his kingdom but ultimately allowed him to stay in 5 specific places. These places were - where wine is consumed, where gambling takes place, where animals are slaughtered, where prostitution occurs, and where stolen ornaments are worn.

Incidentally, Raja Parikshit had worn Jarasandha’s Crown (Bhima killed Jarasandha and gifted his Crown to Raja Parikshit). Due to this Crown, Kali entered Raja’s mind and controlled it, made Raja to insult a Sage thereby being cursed to die within 7 days.

Soon as Raja removed his Crown, he realised what mistake he had done but couldn’t do anything about it. That is when concept ‘Bhagwat Katha’ began, which would go on for 7 days and is believed to take away ones fear of death

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